Week 9
Five games, one 37-point fireworks show, and a margin of victory so small it should be measured in vending-machine change. Here's the tape.
season to date
Traffic Jam
This one was never close, but it also wasn't pretty. Josh Allen (22.1), Bijan Robinson (21.5) and DeVonta Smith (18.7) all did exactly what they were drafted to do, and that was enough to put Traffic up by four touchdowns before garbage time even started.
The real story is what didn't happen for Circleback's Circlebacks. Patrick Mahomes (24.5) and Jordan Addison (16.1) held up their end, but Chris Olave turned into a parked car — 2.3 points on a 15.7-point projection, one catch for 13 yards. When your projected second option no-shows by 13 points, you circle back to 0-and-whatever real quick.
Small mercy for Traffic: Cedric Tillman put up 19.5 on the bench and it didn't even matter. Winning by 28 will do that.
0.0 pts
19.5 pts
The JSN Show
Somebody forgot to tell Jaxon Smith-Njigba this was a fantasy matchup and not a video game on rookie difficulty. 7 catches, 180 yards, 2 touchdowns, 37.0 points against a 13.5-point projection — a +23.5 explosion that's the single biggest individual outlier of the whole week, by a mile. He was a Round 9 pick. Round nine. De'Von Achane (32.1) and Joe Burrow (29.1) showed up too, because apparently everyone on this roster got the same group text.
And here's the part that should really sting: Bob's Buttfumbles scored 155.6 points — the fourth-most in the entire league this week — and still lost by 42. Saquon Barkley went for 32.9, Jalen Hurts added 29.9, and none of it mattered against a buzzsaw. That's the kind of week where you did nothing wrong and still have to explain yourself to the group chat.
Both benches were sitting on fortunes, for what it's worth: Zay Flowers put up 29.7 unused for the winners, DeAndre Hopkins put up 28.6 unused for the losers. Neither team needed the reminder that Sundays are cruel.
4.5 pts
28.6 pts
Sunday Service
No single hero here, which is exactly the point — Lamar Jackson (23.6), Davante Adams (22.1) and Travis Kelce (22.0) all clocked in for a full shift and the Cult rolled to a 22-point win on volume alone. Ironically, the guy the team is named after wasn't even the headliner this week. CeeDee Lamb just cashed the offering plate quietly in the background.
Kung Koo Fighting actually had the tools to make this interesting — Courtland Sutton (23.3), Cade Otton (21.7) and Tony Pollard (18.4) were all solid — but Michael Pittman Jr. going full ghost (2.4 points on a 12.6 projection, one catch for 14 yards) took the air out of any comeback before it started.
6.8 pts
12.3 pts
Paper Champions
On paper, 36 ACT should have won this by twenty. Derrick Henry (26.3), Cooper Kupp (21.4) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.6) is about as good a top three as this league has, and Quentin Johnston (22.0) was still sitting on the bench when the final whistle blew. That's a stacked roster that still found a way to lose.
The reason: 36 ACT's own Xavier Worthy — no relation to Xavier Leeget, unfortunately for them — posted a negative point total (−1.0 against a 12.0 projection), which is the fantasy equivalent of scoring on your own goal. On the other side, Garrett Wilson (30.0) and Alvin Kamara (27.5) simply had better days, and A.J. Brown's quiet 5.6 wasn't nearly enough to bail 36 ACT out.
Studs on paper don't cash the check. Studs who actually show up do.
-1.0 pts
22.0 pts
Twelve Cents
The final margin here was 0.12 points. Twelve cents. You could lose this game and find more value in your couch cushions. But the box score doesn't tell you that Gibb'n Em was down as much as 76 points at one point on Sunday. Seventy-six. Justin Jefferson (21.6) and Sam Darnold (19.0) clawed all the way back, and "survive" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Team try your best actually mounted a real threat — J.K. Dobbins (24.5) and Rico Dowdle (21.7) combined for a legitimate two-headed monster out of the backfield, and Dak Prescott (12.3) never even had to leave the bench. But Puka Nacua completely disappeared: 2.1 points on a 16.5-point projection, one catch for 11 yards. Take away that single collapse and this isn't even close — in the other direction.
A game this tight isn't decided by strategy. It's decided by whoever's stud remembered to show up.
Setting the single best lineup you possibly could is usually how you win. This week it was how you lost by twelve cents. There is no justice, only optimal lineups.
Cedric Tillman put up 19.5 doing absolutely nothing for anybody, and Traffic won by 28 anyway. This is the fantasy equivalent of winning the lottery and losing the ticket — and cashing it anyway.
Scored more than six other teams in the league this week. Still went home 0-1 because I'ma burrow you decided to have the best offensive outburst of the season at the exact same time. Nobody did anything wrong here. The universe is just unfair sometimes.
Same team, two awards, completely opposite vibes. The luckiest 1-0 in the building this week.
* Every roster's actual score checked against the best lineup it could have started (2-flex format). Bill Belichick goes to the closest match, Dug's Cone of Shame to the furthest off. Mommy Will Always Love You goes to the week's highest-scoring loser, Jay-Z “I Don't Deserve This” to the week's lowest-scoring winner.
Zoom out across all ten rosters and the shape of the week gets clearer: a couple of teams are already leaning hard on one or two studs to carry the whole week, while others are getting quieter, more distributed production across the lineup. That's the kind of thing that looks fine in a win and turns into a real problem the first time your one guy takes a Sunday off.
— that's Week 9. See you next week. —