Week 1
Week 1 is officially in the books — Caleb Williams and the Bears have a historic offensive performance, and the Rhinds humble the Campeaus. It's a tough week to be a Packer-loving Campeau.
Drake U Wins Comfortably, Then Pads It on Monday Night
Bijan Robinson (31.3), Nico Collins (21.2), and DJ Moore (21.0 out of the flex) had already built a comfortable lead for Drake U before Monday night even started, and Rashee Rice (9.9) and the Broncos D/ST (2.0) turning in modest Chiefs–Broncos performances just padded the final margin. Bowers down to me had nobody left to add once the early games ended: Chris Olave (28.2) and Brock Purdy (21.1) were the whole show.
The real story here is the bench. Dallas Goedert quietly banked 23.7 points doing nothing for Bowers down to me while Harold Fannin Jr. started at tight end and mustered 4.1 — a 19.6-point gift that would have flipped this game twice over, still sitting there unopened.
4.1 pts
23.7 pts
Kenneth Walker III Rescues Alex's Monday Night
This one looked like the league's least convincing win at halftime Monday — Zay Flowers (26.0) and Jalen Hurts (24.7) had Team try your best up by just 10 points on Ja'Marr Chase going for 3.2 on a near-20-point projection in the starting lineup. Then Kenneth Walker III played the Broncos and put up 34.1 points, more than double his 14.7 projection, turning a nervy squeaker into a 44-point laugher and stealing Bill Belichick Manager of the Week away from Hampton Inn and Suites in the process. Zoom out on the whole matchup and it's not even close: Team try your best owns 4 of the top 5 individual scorers on the board, Jonathan Taylor's 25.1 the only thing keeping Lamar You Not Entertained? on the chart at all.
Lamar You Not Entertained? got Jonathan Taylor's 25.1 and not much else, and the box score has a genuinely brutal line hiding in it: Christian Watson caught fire for 32.7 points from the bench while MarShawn Lloyd started and returned 3.7 — the single biggest swap regret anywhere in the league this week.
3.7 pts
32.7 pts
Mark Leaves 45 Points on the Bench and Wins Anyway
Caleb Williams turned in the single best individual game in the league this week — 37.26 points, more than double his 16.4 projection, on 2 pass TDs, 2 rush TDs, and 269 yards through the air — and Ashton Jeanty added 32.7 of his own, which is the only reason Circleback's Circlebacks are still standing. Mark's optimal lineup this week was 151.06. His actual lineup was 106.06. That 45-point gap is the worst in the league, and it includes benching an 18-point Dalton Kincaid behind a zero from Colston Loveland at tight end.
36 ACT didn't play badly — Justin Jefferson (31.2) and Lamar Jackson (25.0) both went off — they just ran into a team that got historically lucky about which 45 points it left unused. That 106.06 also turned out to be the league's lowest winning score once Monday night finished, so Circleback's Circlebacks somehow walks away with two of this week's four awards.
Also worth flagging: this is the second Campeau to fall to a Rhind this week. Alexander did it to Chris in the late window, and now Mark's done it to Anthony. Bragging rights for both Rhind brothers, a Week 1 goose egg for both Campeaus.
0.0 pts
18.0 pts
Derek's Nearly-Perfect Lineup Gets the Job Done
Josh Allen (35.7 on a 19.3 projection), Amon-Ra St. Brown (28.7), and Bucky Irving (20.3) turned Hampton Inn and Suites' week into the league's highest score, and it's also one of the league's most efficient — 149.26 actual against a 155.56-point ceiling, just 6.3 points off a theoretically perfect lineup. That would have been enough to win Bill Belichick Manager of the Week in most weeks; this week, Kenneth Walker III's Monday-night eruption handed Team try your best an even tighter 5.1-point margin, and Derek's near-perfect lineup got quietly leapfrogged.
Gettin Njiggy Wit It has real weapons — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (26.2), Javonte Williams (24.2), and a 19-point day from the Steelers D/ST — plus 33.8 points from Jalen Coker sitting unused on the bench behind a 9.5-point Luther Burden III. Bo Nix's Monday night didn't help either: 5.4 points on a 16.1-point projection, a real bust that closed the gap to 33.22 but was never going to erase a 38-point deficit.
9.5 pts
33.8 pts
Bob's Buttfumbles Perform Admirably; Still Get Wrecked
121.06 points is a fine Week 1 total — better, in fact, than Circleback's Circlebacks' own winning score this week. It just ran into Derrick Henry (35.3) and Jahmyr Gibbs (33.6) putting up 68.9 combined points for Xavier Leeget, nearly double the league's median output at running back, and then Travis Kelce (10.1) and Harrison Butker (7.0) tacked on more from Monday night to turn a comfortable win into a 34.94-point blowout. Trey McBride (24.5), Breece Hall (19.8), and Ladd McConkey (19.2) did their part for Bob's Buttfumbles; the Texans D/ST did not, finishing at -4.0 as the single worst starter in the entire league this week.
The real self-inflicted wound belongs to Bob's Buttfumbles, not Xavier Leeget: benching the Seahawks D/ST (14.0) to start the Texans D/ST (-4.0) was an 18-point unforced error, bigger than anything either roster did at tight end. Xavier Leeget's own tight end swap — Travis Kelce (10.1) over a 27.8-point Isaiah Likely — would have been the week's story on another team, but it's not even the worst mistake in this specific matchup.
-4.0 pts
14.0 pts
Kenneth Walker III's 34.1-point Monday night pushed Alex's lineup to within 5.1 points of perfect, sneaking past Hampton Inn and Suites' own near-flawless 6.3-point week at the buzzer. Even a goober can look like a genius when a Monday-night workhorse drops 34 points in your lap.
45 points left on the bench is the worst mismanagement in the league this week — and Mark's team still won, behind a 37-point Caleb Williams game bailing out an 18-point Dalton Kincaid mistake at tight end.
121.06 points would have won Circleback's Circlebacks' own matchup this week. It didn't win this one, because Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 68.9 points on the other side, and Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker piled on more Monday night. Bob's Buttfumbles did enough to feel fine about it and still lost big — the exact energy this award exists for.
The league's lowest winning score belongs to Mark, who got there anyway despite leaving 45 points on the bench — the same week's-worst mismanagement that already earned him the Cone of Shame above. A win's a win, even an unconvincing 106.06 of one.
* Every roster's actual score checked against the best lineup it could have started (2-flex format). Bill Belichick goes to the closest match, Dug's Cone of Shame to the furthest off. Mommy Will Always Love You goes to the week's highest-scoring loser, Jay-Z “I Don't Deserve This” to the week's lowest-scoring winner.
One week of positional-shape data is a small sample, but it's already got a signature: two teams — Circleback's Circlebacks and 36 ACT — are sitting on a flat zero from the tight end slot, while Xavier Leeget's running backs alone (Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs, 68.9 combined) already outscored the league's median RB output by nearly two-to-one. The week's biggest swing, though, came from a bench: Kenneth Walker III's Monday-night eruption pushed Team try your best's own RB total to second in the league and flipped a fun-award winner along the way. Whether any of that is the shape of the season or just Week 1 noise is exactly what these charts exist to find out.
— that's Week 1. See you next week. —